Coffee Price Increases from 28th March 2025

Coffee – and it’s pricing – has made the international news several times in recent months, with historic market price highs, global shortages and climate change at the forefront of each article.

Ringtons remains committed to providing quality products through a fair and robust supply chain. This letter unpicks the headlines and explains why coffee is going to become more expensive in 2025, if we are to continue to provide the quality that customers have come to expect from us.

The effects are felt throughout the entire coffee industry, both in the UK and globally – including:

Extreme Weather

Whilst climate change is on everyone’s minds, it currently affects those who produce coffee far more than those who consume coffee. The two largest coffee producing countries in the world, Brazil and Vietnam, have both suffered extreme drought followed by excessive rainfall, leading to lower coffee production from both countries.

Drought is extremely bad for coffee trees, especially during the flowering stage, as it leads to damage and aborted flowerings, meaning the coffee cherries do not develop. Excessive rainfall is also bad for trees as it can hinder growth, spread diseases and fungi, and reduce photosynthesis.

Drought led to Vietnam suffering a 20% drop in Robusta production for crop year 2023/24, with another deficit predicted for 2024/25. This will mean a second consecutive year of lower than usual Robusta production. This is compounded by the fact that Vietnamese coffee farmers are looking to alternative sources for income, such as producing durian fruit, and abandoning their coffee trees as reported on the BBC last year.

Brazil, the world’s biggest Arabica producer, has seen a similar climatic situation. Meteorologists confirmed that last year was the driest since 1981, which is expected to significantly affect the upcoming 2025/26 harvest. This crop is currently forecasted to see a reduction of anything between 5 – 25% of total production, depending on whose crop analysis you read. This will have a substantial impact on global coffee supplies.

Supply and Demand Imbalance

Brazil and Vietnam affect global supply significantly as together they make up 55% of global production (Brazil 39% and Vietnam 16%). No other country produces enough coffee to make up the shortfall.

This means that as global demand for coffee continues to increase, there will be a deficit in supply and demand for 2025/26. This will be the fifth consecutive year of deficit which means there are no buffer stocks from previous years.

Macroeconomic Events and Volatility

Both Arabica and Robusta are traded commodities on the New York Intercontinental Exchange. Arabica is traded in US Dollars per pound and Robusta is US Dollars per metric tonne. This means that not only are they affected by supply and demand conditions, but also “macro” events such as geopolitics, currency fluctuations, political stability, logistical issues and inflation.

The economic and political climate of 2024 has affected all markets, but especially the commodity markets. Investors tend to invest in commodities during periods of inflation as they are seen as protecting investors from inflationary effects. However, this increased speculative activity creates more volatility in the markets, making it challenging for physical buyers.

In 2024 we witnessed two wars, the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, a UK and US election, and the introduction of EU legislation regarding deforestation. All of these have influenced and affected the coffee market prices. The start of 2025 looks no less volatile, with the incumbent US President introducing trade tariffs.

But what does this mean for the price of your coffee?

The long and the short of it is, all these factors have compounded, meaning coffee is going to be significantly more expensive throughout 2025.

The Arabica market (known as the NY) is currently at its highest ever levels and has remained at this level since mid-December. This can be seen on the chart below, which shows the last five years of market levels:

Within the chart below are two grey arrows toward the right side, the first “August 2024” shows that in the last 6 months coffee has physically doubled in cost price, a 200% increase. The second arrow is December 2024 where we have seen Arabica coffee achieve a lifetime price high over 400Clb

The same chart for the Robusta market can be seen below:

Much like Arabica this product has doubled in price since December 2023 and reached a record lifetime high in mid-2024.

Never have we seen both the Arabica and Robusta markets at simultaneously record levels. You can read more about these record-breaking coffee prices in this BBC article and this Guardian article.

What are Ringtons Doing About This?

At Ringtons, we remain focused on providing the best quality, value and service. We have managed to maintain prices over the recent months, when others had already issued increases.

However considering the information within this article we are amending prices on our roast and ground coffee products for ALL deliveries after Friday 28th March 2025.

Your Ringtons account manager will be in touch w/c 10th March to provide you with the specific information related to your products and agreed pricing. We are very aware of the impact that this cost increase will have and assure you we are only passing on the increase in coffee costs. We estimate pricing will reflect an increase of 3-5p per cup.

Ringtons have a specialist team who have expertise in coffee buying and market analysis. This means we work hard to identify the optimum times to buy coffee. However, the volatility of the market and global supply issues are unavoidable.

We work with a consistent set of suppliers both in trading offices and at origin who will ensure we can continue to access the high-quality coffee our customers have come to expect from Ringtons.

We also purchase our coffee on a forward contract basis at fixed currency rates, which means our prices are locked in for several months ahead. However if market volatility continues, we cannot rule out further increases. Rest assured, we will adopt an open and honest dialogue should this occur.